The US men’s basketball team heading to the Paris Olympics, composed of multiple legendary superstars, can be called a luxury warship in the Olympics. Thankfully, no one is calling them the “Dream Team” this time.

This is because basketball in the US and Europe has become so deeply integrated now, nothing like the days over 30 years ago when NBA stars first participated in the Olympics—back then, the NBA and European basketball were completely separate worlds.

The Tokyo Olympics three years ago showed that the US men’s team is still the most capable of winning gold, but no longer guaranteed to win every game. Head coach Steve Kerr knows this well, which is why he brought as many top NBA stars as possible who were willing to play in the Olympics. After this tournament, Kerr has decided to step down and never coach the national team again.

Still, there’s no 100% guarantee that the US team will win gold and let Kerr leave with a clean slate.
32 years ago, the US men’s team, also composed of NBA superstars, went to Barcelona. Everywhere they went, crowds packed the streets, and opponents asked for autographs and photos after games, as if they weren’t there to play in the Olympics but to worship NBA stars.

Back then, Michael Jordan and head coach Chuck Daly would play a round of golf during the day even if they had a game that night, then go on to win by 30 or 50 points.

This time, the US team organized a golf outing while in the UAE for warm-up games, but Kerr said that once in Paris, at least he and Stephen Curry won’t play golf on game days.

Three years ago at the Tokyo Olympics, Kerr’s mentor Gregg Popovich led the team to defeat France in the final and win gold, redeeming some pride after the humiliating defeat at the China World Cup. But the US team lost to France in the group stage, their first Olympic loss since 2004—and the first time in history they won gold after a loss.

The US team hasn’t used the “Dream Team” label for nearly 30 years. From 1992 to 1996, the US Basketball Association sent teams to world competitions (two Olympics, one World Championship), with selection and promotion handled by Nike, which created the “Dream Team” tag. After Nike stopped managing it and just sponsored financially, the label was dropped. But the US still maintains the tradition of sending top stars to the Olympics, especially after World Cup losses.

For the Tokyo Olympics, they should have fielded a luxury lineup, but the one-year delay due to COVID-19 caused over 50 players to accept selection initially, then many withdrew, plus injuries, so it wasn’t actually their strongest roster. Kevin Durant scored only 10 points in the group stage loss to France, but later showed his “Olympic King” form in the knockout stage, averaging 27 points in three games.

Three years ago, Durant’s main supports were Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, while Devin Booker had a mediocre performance. This time, Durant is joined by LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards. Kawhi Leonard was supposed to join, even arrived with his luggage, but withdrew due to a lingering leg injury, replaced by Derrick White—the only non-All-Star on the team, though he just won an NBA championship with Tatum and Holiday.

While the addition of more star power is one thing, the biggest change for this US team is having Joel Embiid in the frontcourt.

From Barcelona to Paris, the US Olympic men’s team has seen a steady decline in interior strength. Over 30 years ago, in their first Olympics, they had Patrick Ewing and David Robinson. In 1996, they had Shaquille O’Neal and Hakeem Olajuwon, who saw the Olympics as the highest honor because winning gold was a given.

Starting in 2000, dominant centers became scarce. In Sydney, the frontcourt featured Alonzo Mourning, Kevin Garnett, and Antonio McDyess. In 2004 in Greece, it was Tim Duncan, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Carlos Boozer—the first time pro players failed to win gold. By then, the US Basketball Association realized there were fewer top domestic centers, so even the star-studded Beijing 2008 roster only had Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh, and Boozer in the paint. In London 2012, the “luxury” still lied in the wings and backcourt—Durant, Kobe Bryant, James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, plus Russell Westbrook and James Harden from the Thunder—young Anthony Davis debuted, but like Tyson Chandler, he wasn’t heavily used; they essentially won gold with a wing-heavy lineup.

With drastic changes in global basketball styles, fewer top US centers, and a focus on the Olympics over the World Cup, the US has lacked competitiveness in the World Cup.

At the 2019 China World Cup, the US played Brook Lopez, Mason Plumlee, and Myles Turner at center; in the 2023 Philippines World Cup, it was Jaren Jackson Jr. and Walker Kessler, even using Paolo Banchero at center for small-ball lineups, leading to losses to Lithuania, Germany in the semifinals, and Canada, failing to win a medal.

Another World Cup failure prompted superstars like James and Curry to return, but without a good center, they still can’t be sure against European powerhouses. Thus, they finally persuaded Embiid to abandon Team France and choose Team USA.

With Embiid adding a double insurance at center, will the US luxury warship definitely win gold?

James, Durant, and Curry are battle-tested, experienced, and supremely skilled, joined by prime Devin Booker and young stars Edwards and Tatum. If they fail to win gold, they won’t be forgiven like the US team at the Philippines World Cup. And the risk is real, because “battle-tested and experienced” also means “older.” The original Dream Team was old too, but not this old, and there was a huge talent gap between them and the rest of the world.

At these Paris Olympics, several teams can challenge the US. I see the biggest threats as host France, Serbia led by Nikola Jokic, and World Cup champion Germany.