Luka followed through on an early extension with the Lakers as expected, but the contract is only a short three years, and it’s a 2+1 deal, which can also be understood as only a two-year extension. He brought over his guaranteed contract from the Mavericks for next season, and now it’s confirmed that he has the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons locked in, with a player option for 2028-29. Is signing such a short deal to keep the option to bolt at any time? Not exactly. The reason Luka signed for such a short term is to make up for the money he lost while with the Mavericks. The money can be recouped, but with such a short contract, Luka has also put a lot of pressure on himself over the next two years. It goes without saying that he needs to produce results, but more importantly, he can’t afford to get injured. As we all know, the longer the guaranteed contract period, the lower the risk—you don’t have to worry about minor aches and pains or even serious injuries. These days, the NBA is a brutal place, with star players getting seriously injured left and right. Usually, the longer the contract, the better; sometimes you even take a slight pay cut to avoid uncertainties down the line. So, for Luka to do this takes extraordinary courage, which is why Men’s Health magazine released stories and photos of his summer training this year a few days ago. Showing up with a brand-new look is both an assurance to the Lakers and a form of self-motivation, a constant reminder that a man keeps his word once it’s spoken. I previously predicted Luka would sign an early 3-year, 2+1 extension with the Lakers. When that men’s magazine article came out, there was talk that he’d max out with a four-year, $229 million extension (since Luka still has one year left on his contract, the Lakers could offer a maximum early extension of four years), and I thought I’d misjudged things. In the end, he still signed for three years, which is actually the most reasonable choice and most beneficial for Luka himself.

The NBA salary cap can rise by around 10% annually. Once a player has 10 years of service, they can sign a super max contract, where their annual salary can account for 35% of the salary cap. Luka has now played 7 years; in three years, he’ll hit 10 years of service, which will be the summer of 2028.

Signing a shorter deal and waiting it out until he hits 10 years of service to re-sign means Luka will essentially make up for all the losses he incurred with the Mavericks. Those agency firms aren’t in the business for nothing—they crunch the numbers meticulously, turning bad situations into good ones. The key here is that Luka must stay healthy. The foundation of health is losing weight, and losing weight requires effort, which will pay off. This is certainly much harder than comfortably collecting a high salary for five or six years with the Mavericks. It also reflects the Lakers’ highest expectations for Luka. For the Lakers, Luka may have fallen into their laps, but there’s no such thing as a free lunch. The Lakers also need to put in the work and get Luka to cooperate to smoothly transition into the post-LeBron era and the new ownership era. Looking back now, that secret meeting between Pelinka, Redick, and Luka at that upscale bar after the season ended wasn’t about sidelining LeBron—it was about mapping out a blueprint together and setting requirements for his physical management. From the front office’s perspective, the early 2+1 extension also gives the Lakers ample flexibility for roster moves.

Looking at it now, many top teams, especially those built around veteran stars, are going all-in for these next two years. That includes the Warriors, Clippers, Nuggets, Mavericks, etc.—their key players are on either 1+1 or 2+1 deals. So the next two seasons in the Western Conference will be a fierce, cutthroat battle, extremely intense. The rise of young teams has become unstoppable; for the established teams, it’s now or never in these next two years. In two years, everything will be up for grabs, and a complete generational shift will take place. By then, besides clinging tightly to Luka as their centerpiece, the Lakers will likely make some huge moves. Because even if LeBron plays for two more years, he’ll eventually retire after that.