Two years after Victor Wembanyama entered the league, the NBA is quickly gearing up to launch its next top product—Cooper Flagg. Several teams are eager to land him.

But the San Antonio Spurs’ selection of Wembanyama shows that landing a generational talent isn’t just about tanking endlessly. To get Flagg, teams might need to take a page from the Spurs’ playbook, mainly for these reasons:

1. Tanking is just a probabilistic foundation, but it needs limits.
2. A strong winning tradition matters—don’t pin all hopes on a No. 1 pick to turn things around.
3. A top-tier coaching staff and visionary front office are crucial to nurturing a franchise player who can become a league-wide icon, not just a team star.

Is there a chance the NBA lottery is rigged? It’s been questioned before.

For example, in 2016, before the lottery, Dikembe Mutombo mistakenly tweeted congratulations to the 76ers for winning the No. 1 pick. The 76ers had snagged consecutive No .1 picks in those years, and with Joel Embiid returning after a two-year hiatus, their “Trust the Process” rebuild was widely praised—almost as if the NBA was helping assemble a championship team.

In 2017, Magic Johnson assured coach Luke Walton that the Lakers would at least land a top-three pick, just over a week before the lottery. The Lakers had 156 combinations that year, giving them the third-highest odds.

The NBA’s No. 1 picks have a solid success rate, but in the past 30 years, fewer than half have become league icons or changed the competitive landscape. Only around 10 have had a lasting impact on an era— or beyond. While franchise players aren’t always No. 1 picks, the pool of game-changers is tiny, making it understandable why the league might want to ensure top talents don’t end up squandered.

Every time a No. 1 pick is hyped as a future legend, their final destination seems random. But connecting the dots of history’s biggest names tells a different story:

• In 1992, Shaquille O’Neal went to the Magic. Orlando, a major tourist hub, draws countless families worldwide. Like the 76ers later, the Magic won another No. 1 pick the next year (with the lowest odds) and traded for “Jordan’s heir,” Penny Hardaway.
• In 2003, the Cavaliers picked LeBron James, who was packaged similarly to Shaq and was a local kid. He’d go on to shape Ohio and the entire Great Lakes region. Historically, the NBA allowed lottery teams to pick a local college star and forfeit their first-round pick—a rule since abolished.
• Five years after LeBron joined the Cavs, Chicago-born Derrick Rose was picked by the Bulls, despite their 1.7% odds (ninth in the lottery). Though injuries derailed his legacy, the youngest MVP lived up to the hype at the time—on par with today’s Flagg.

No. 1 picks don’t always come from the three worst teams. What about franchises that have never won a lottery? Since the lottery system began in 1985, eight teams have never landed a No. 1 pick: the Mavericks, Nuggets, Pacers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Heat, Thunder, and Jazz.

Excluding the five teams consistently in the East/West’s top six, that leaves the Jazz, Mavericks, and Heat. The Heat missed the playoffs this year (like the Hawks last season) and will be in the lottery.

Here’s the twist: I’d love to see the Mavericks get Flagg. Once a title contender, they were derailed by a sudden trade and injuries, missing the play-in tournament. They have a winning tradition (the league’s kind of “model franchise”), and sending Luka Dončić to the Lakers might even suit the NBA’s interests. With a new owner (you know where he’s from), it’s a shame to see such a prime market struggle.

They really need Flagg.